Sensex emerges as the best of the world indices

After suffering the ignominy of languishing among the worst-performing markets for the past few months, matters have slightly improved for India. Outlook on equities continues to remains dismal —barring the occasional surge — but Indian equities have shown better resilience than what most market watchers had expected it to.

After a fall in more than a third of its value in the six months of CY2008, the Sensex has rebounded remarkably to become the best-performing index amongst major indices in the last month.

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Easing of crude prices has provided some relief to the bulls who have been battling a flood of negative newsflow for the past few months. The price of crude has fallen by 20% from its peak of close to $150 a barrel. This has reduced the inflationary pressures to some extent, though experts feel it is too early to celebrate.

Indian shares, one of the worst performers in the first six months of the year, is gradually regaining some of its lost ground. A return to a degree of political stability after the trust vote as well as the strengthening rupee made Sensex the outperformer in the list of major global indices. The BSE Sensex recorded a rise of 18% in the period since July 15 — the day when all global markets were at their latest bottom. Capital goods, banks and realty — the sectors most impacted in the crash propelled the resurgence. Those sectors possess a high beta — indicating a greater correlation to the benchmark index, which entails that these sectors outperform the index in good times.

Slowing crude oil prices have not yet impacted consumer inflation figures, as the US inflation rose at the fastest rate in 17 years on account of energy and food prices. Despite the pessimism, a renewed confidence in the dollar brought cheer to US markets with the Nasdaq and Dow Jones posting positive returns. The exchanges registered returns of 12% and 6%, respectively, with investors anticipating inflation to cool off as reduced oil prices find their way to the inflation index.

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Whilst a correction in commodity prices brought about a relief to the Indian and American markets, economies dependent on commodities crashed further. The Brazilian Stock Exchange declined as investors grew sceptical on the commodity-driven economy. Commodities account for the entire export revenue growth, allowing for increased imports without worsening the trade balance. BOVESPA, the Brazilian benchmark index, declined by a further 12% in the period since July 17 as investors developed cold feet on the largest Latin American economy.

Lower inflation figures notwithstanding as well as the euphoria over the Olympics, the Shanghai Stock Exchange recorded a further fall of 8% in the past month. Market forecasts that the high producer price inflation figures reflect consumer prices to rise in the coming months in the world’s thirdlargest economy. Other Asian markets like the Nikkei in Japan and Hangseng in Hong Kong remained stable, registering marginal increases.

European markets have gained in the past month despite fears of a recession in the UK. The FTSE 100, the London Stock Exchange, surged 8% despite deterioration in economic outlook for the nation. Similarly, despite a contraction in its economy in the last quarter, German markets remained largely positive on the future. The DAX grew 6% on optimism that cooling crude and a weakening euro will boost Europe’s largest economy in the coming months.

Source - Economic times